German labour market reliant on immigrants
3. Dezember 2024

A recent Bertelsmann Stiftung study warns that without substantial immigration, Germany’s labor market could face a 10% decline by 2040. To sustain economic stability and meet the demand for workers, the country will need at least 288,000 international workers annually and potentially up to 368,000 under less favorable conditions. According to the report, a foreign worker shortage would hit the most populous state of North Rhine-Westphalia the hardest, and would heavily affect southern regions such as Bavaria. Without the additional international workers the number of workers in Germany would sink from its current 146,6 million to 41,9 million, with the most significant declines occurring in southwestern Saarland as well as in the states of Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt. Major cities that already have high levels of immigration, such as Berlin and Hamburg, would be less severely stressed, according to the study. This challenge stems from Germany’s demographic shifts, especially the retirement of the Baby Boomer generation. Migration expert Susanne Schultz emphasizes that while efforts to boost domestic labor participation are critical, they won’t suffice to bridge the gap. A more robust “welcome culture” in workplaces, communities, and public institutions is essential to attract and retain skilled international talent. In 2023, Germany already took steps to attract foreign workers and make it easier for them to take up positions, for instance with the introduction of the “blue card.” The card is designed for qualified specialists and aims to reduce bureaucracy around recognizing foreign degrees. However, Schultz notes that obstacles remain that should be removed in order to effectively attract these workers.

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