A new study by the German Institute for Employment Research IAB  reveals that roughly a quarter of migrants living in Germany are considering leaving the country — and many of them are working in sectors already hit hard by labour shortages.

The findings are based on a nationwide online survey commissioned by the Federal Employment Agency. According to the report, the main reasons people think about leaving include political dissatisfaction, high tax burdens, complex bureaucracy, and — especially in the case of refugees — experiences of discrimination.

But for many, it’s personal: Social ties such as partners, family, or friends were often cited by those planning to return to their country of origin. Those considering onward migration to other countries, including the US, Switzerland, or Spain, often mentioned career motivations or better economic prospects abroad.

High-skilled, well-integrated migrants most likely to leave

Ironically, it’s often the very people Germany is actively trying to attract and retain who are thinking most seriously about leaving: highly educated, professionally successful, and well-integrated migrants. “These are exactly the skilled workers Germany urgently needs,” said IAB researcher Lukas Olbrich.

The risk of leaving varies by sector. In fields like IT, finance, insurance, and business services, as many as 30–39% of respondents said they are considering emigration. Significant numbers also reported this in healthcare, manufacturing, logistics, and retail — all industries facing major workforce gaps.

A forecast for Hamburg alone estimates a shortage of over 170,000 skilled workers by 2040.

Vanessa Ahuja, board member for international affairs at the Federal Employment Agency, called the findings a wake-up call: “Germany’s labour market can’t function without skilled workers from third countries. That means we need less bureaucracy, faster digital processes, streamlined recognition of qualifications — and above all, broader societal acceptance.”